Publications at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Publications at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (2015-2017)

(* indicates thematic research notes; ** notes on major economic forecasts/revisions)


1. “In Line with Our Non-Consensus View, the BoK Sounds Optimistic and Hawkish,” Korea Macro Watch, October 19, 2017.

2. “Korea – What Should We Expect from the 19 October BoK Meeting?” Emerging Insight, October 17, 2017.

3. “Korea – What Does the Latest Leading Indicator Tell Us?” Emerging Insight, October 8, 2017.

4. “All-Time High Monthly Exports in September,” Korea Macro Watch, October 2, 2017.

5. “Inflation Softens in September, But Stays Above 2%,” Korea Macro Watch, September 28, 2017.

6. “UN Security Council Ramps Up Pressure on N. Korea with Strongest Sanctions Ever,” Korea Macro Watch, September 12, 2017.

7. “Tax Hike Plan to Promote Redistribution and Fiscal Expansion,” Asia Economic Weekly, September 10, 2017.*

8. “Big Upside Surprises in Export Growth and Inflation,” Korea Macro Watch, September 1, 2017.

9. “Preliminary 2Q17 GDP Reaffirms Steady Growth Momentum,” Korea Macro Watch, September 1, 2017.

10. “BoK Maintains Cautious Optimism amid Elevated North Korea Risk,” Korea Macro Watch, August 31, 2017.

11. “An Era of Big Government Has Arrived,” Korea Macro Watch, August 29, 2017.*

12. “North Korea Risk – Is This Time Different?” Korea Macro Watch, August 17, 2017.*

13. “To Expect the Unexpected: Spectre of Cost-Push Inflation,” Korea Macro Watch, August 1, 2017.*

14. “Very Strong Export Growth amid Multi-Year High Inflation in July,” Korea Macro Watch, August 1, 2017.

15. “Advance 2Q17 GDP Shows the Economy Continues Its Steady Growth Momentum,” Korea Macro Watch, July 27, 2017.

16. “Korea - Does It Have the Low Inflation Puzzle Too? Wage, Inflation, and the BoK,” Asia Economic Weekly, July 20, 2017.*

17. “BoK’s Upgrading of 2017 GDP Forecast Vindicates Our Non-Consensus Vview,” Korea Macro Watch, July 13, 2017.**

18. “Korea - Mr. Moon Goes to Washington,” Emerging Insight, July 4, 2017.*

19. “Inflation Edges Lower in June, But Stays Close to 2%,” Korea Macro Watch, July 4, 2017.

20. “Double-Digit Robust Export Growth Continues for Six Straight Months,” Korea Macro Watch, July 2, 2017.

21. “Inequality and Growth: What Are the Current Issues and Why Do They Matter?,” Korea Economic Viewpoint, June 25, 2017.*

22. “Korea - Rising Inequality, Social Polarization, and Growth,” Asia Economic Weekly, June 15, 2017.*

23. “Preliminary 1Q17 GDP Revised Higher with Rising Expectations for Growth,” Korea Macro Watch, June 2, 2017.

24. “Stellar Export Performance Continues amid Multi-Year High Inflation,” Korea Macro Watch, June 1, 2017.

25. “Growing Optimism at the BoK,” Korea Macro Watch, May 25, 2017.

26. “Korea - President Moon’s Economic Policy Plans and the BoK,” Emerging Insight, May 23, 2017.*

27. “Moon to Be Korean President: First Take,” Korea Macro Watch, May 9, 2017.*

28. “Inflation Edged Lower in April, But Stays Close to Multi-Year Highs,” Korea Macro Watch, May 2, 2017.

29. “Blockbuster Export Growth Continues in April,” Korea Macro Watch, May 1, 2017.

30. “Advance 1Q17 GDP Picks Up amid Signs of Growth Gaining Momentum,” Korea Macro Watch, April 26, 2017.

31. “North Korea Risk: Known Unknowns and Unknown Unknowns,” Korea Macro Watch, April 23, 2017.*

32. “(How Much) Will Strong Exports Help Employment and Consumption?” Korea Macro Watch, April 23, 2017.*

33. “Korea: (How much) Will Strong Exports Help Employment and Consumption?,” Asia Economic Weekly, April 20, 2017.*

34. “Is There Any Political Cycle?” Korea Economic Viewpoint, April 17, 2017.*

35. “BoK Upgrades 2017 GDP and Inflation Forecast, While Holding Rates Steady,” Korea Watch, April 13, 2017.

36. “Inflation Hits Highest Level since Jun 2012,” Korea Watch, April 4, 2017.

37. “Three Months of Double-Digit Export Growth Brighten Economic Outlook,” Korea Watch, April 2, 2017.

38. “Korea: Is There Any Political Cycle?” Emerging Insight, April 2, 2017.*

39. “Preliminary GDP Data for 4Q16 and 2016 Revised Upwards,” Korea Watch, March 28, 2017.

40. “Is the Export Comeback Real?” Korea Watch, March 19, 2017.*

41. “Korea: Is the Export Comeback Real?” Asia Economic Weekly, March 16, 2017.*

42. “Constitutional Court Unanimously Upholds Impeachment of President Park,” Korea Watch, March 10, 2017.

43. “Inflation Stays Close to Highest Since 2012,” Korea Watch, March 3, 2017.

44. “Blockbuster Export Growth in February,” Korea Watch, March 1, 2017.

45. “BoK Holds Steady amid Rising Inflation and Exports,” Korea Watch, February 23, 2017.

46. “Taking Stock of the Economic Outlook for 2017-18: So Far, So Good,” Korea Watch, February 19, 2017.**

47. “Korea: Minority Report on 2017-18 Economic Outlook,” Emerging Insight, February 19, 2017.**

48. “Inflation Spikes to Highest Since 2012”, Korea Watch, February 2, 2017.

49. “Export Growth Surges to 4-year High,” Korea Watch, February 1, 2017.

50. “Is Inflation Making a Comeback?” Korea Watch, January 31, 2017.*

51. “Korea: Is Inflation Making a Comeback?” Emerging Insight, January 29, 2017.*

52. “Advance 4Q16 GDP Softens, But Relieves Some Worry,” Korea Watch, January 25, 2017.

53. “(How Much) Does Economic Sentiment Matter?” Korea Watch, January 22, 2017.*

54. “Korea: (How Much) Does Economic Sentiment Matter? Taking It Seriously,” Asia Economic Weekly, January 19, 2017.*

55. “BoK Remains on Watchful Hold at Time of Uncertainty,” Korea Watch, January 13, 2017.

56. “Strong Exports Growth amid Stable Inflation Bodes Well for 2017,” Korea Watch, January 2, 2017.

57. “A Day after Fed Hike, BoK Holds Rate Steady,” Korea Watch, December 15, 2016.

58. “Impact of Fed Rate Hike on EM Asia,” (joint with Claudio Piron and X. Zhi) Asia Economic Viewpoint, December 14, 2016.*

59. “Parliament Votes Overwhelmingly to Impeach President Park,” Korea Watch, December 9, 2016.

60. “Preliminary 3Q16 GDP Estimate Came with Minor Downward Revision,” Korea Watch, December 2, 2016.

61. “Export Growth Turned Positive on Cont’d Improving Trend amid Stable Inflation,” Korea Watch, December 1, 2016.

62. “Update on Political Turmoil Facing the President Park Administration,” Korea Watch, November 29, 2016.

63. “Three Key Questions Facing the BoK Ahead of Fed’s Hike Post-US Election,” Korea Watch, November 29, 2016.*

64. “BoK Stays Put under Great Uncertainty,” Korea Watch, November 11, 2016.

65. “Implications of Political Upheaval Facing the President Park Administration,” (joint with Brian Song and Ronald Man), Korea Watch, November 3, 2016.*

66. “Korea: Three Key Questions Facing the BoK Ahead of Fed Hike,” Emerging Insight, November 2, 2016.*

67. “Export Growth Gets Back on Improving Trend with Gradual Rise in Inflation,” Korea Watch, November 1, 2016.

68. “Korea Joins the League of Wealthy Nations,” Korea Watch, October 26, 2016.*

69. “Advance Estimate of 3Q16 GDP Surprises to the Upside,” Korea Watch, October 25, 2016.

70. “Korea: Rare Opportunity to Build the Wealth of Nation Lies Ahead,” Asia Economic Weekly, October 20, 2016.*

71. “BoK Holds Steady as Household Debt Continues to Rise Sharply,” Korea Watch, October 13, 2016.

72. “Inflation Surprises to the Upside to Hit 7-month High,” Korea Watch, October 5, 2016.

73. “Exports Fail to Snap Out of It,” Korea Watch, October 2, 2016.

74. “BoK in Wait-and-See Mode Ahead of Fed’s Decision,” Korea Watch, September 9, 2016.

75. “Preliminary 2Q16 GDP Turns Out Even Better than Advance Estimate,” Korea Watch, September 2, 2016.

76. “Korea: How Sustainable Will Export Turnaround Be?” Asia Economic Weekly, September 1, 2016.*

77. “Stunning Turnaround of Exports Growth with Downside Inflation Surprise,” Korea Watch, September 1, 2016.

78. “BoK Holds Steady Ahead of Passage of Supplementary Budget Bill,” Korea Watch, August 11, 2016.

79. “Can Fiscal Stimulus Lift the Korean Economy?” Korea Watch, August 7, 2016.*

80. “Korea’s Fiscal Stimulus: Will It Work?” Asia Economic Weekly, August 4, 2016.*

81. “Weak Inflation amid Oil Price Retreat,” Korea Watch, August 2, 2016.

82. “Recent Improving Trend of Exports Halts in July,” Korea Watch, August 1, 2016.

83. “Stronger-than-Expected 2Q16 GDP Offers Some Relief,” Korea Watch, July 26, 2016.

84. “Post-Brexit Uncertainty – How Much Will It Hurt?” Korea Watch, July 14, 2016.*

85. “BoK Is Back in Wait-and-See Mode, with Revised Outlook,” Korea Watch, July 14, 2016.

86. “Korea: Post-Brexit uncertainty,” Asia Economic Weekly, July 7, 2016.*

87. “Recovery in Exports Growth Looms amid Weak Inflation,” Korea Watch, July 1, 2016.

88. “Brexit: Headwinds from the UK,” Korea Watch, June 24, 2016.

89. “Revised Economic Forecast for 2016-17,” Korea Watch, June 21, 2016.**

90. “Why Has Investment Been So Weak Lately?” Korea Watch, June 12, 2016.*

91. “Why Has Investment Been Weak Lately in Korea?” Asia Economic Weekly, June 9, 2016.*

92. “BoK Surprises with a Stealth Move,” Korea Watch, June 9, 2016.

93. “Preliminary 1Q16 GDP Revised Up,” Korea Watch, June 2, 2016.

94. “May Exports Growth and Inflation Fall Short of Expectations,” Korea Watch, June 1, 2016.

95. “Making Sense of the Recent Trend of Korean Exports,” Asia Economic Weekly, May 19, 2016.*

96. “New MPC Members Arrive at Unanimous Decision,” Korea Watch, May 13, 2016.

97. “Low Inflation amid Recovering Oil Prices,” Korea Watch, May 3, 2016.

98. “Export Slump Continues amid Improvement in Export Volume,” Korea Watch, May 1, 2016.

99. “GDP Growth Sputters in 1Q16,” Korea Watch, April 26, 2016.

100. “BoK Holds Steady with Revised Outlook,” Korea Watch, April 19, 2016.

101. “Park Administration Suffers a Political Defeat,” Korea Watch, April 13, 2016.

102. “Economic Forecast for 2016-17: Revision,” Korea Watch, April 8, 2016.**

103. “Korean Economy on 3% Speed Limit?” Asia Economic Weekly, April 7, 2016.*

104. “Exports Growth Better than Consensus, with Still Weak Inflation,” Korea Watch, April 1, 2016.

105. “Preliminary 4Q GDP Revised Up, yet 2015 GDP Unchanged,” Korea Watch, March 27, 2016.

106. “A Case for Robust EM Korea?” Korea Watch, March 21, 2016.*

107. “Robust EM Korea?” Korea in Focus, March 10, 2016.*

108. “Robust EM Korea?” Asia Economic Weekly, March 10, 2016.*

109. “No Surprise from Today’s BoK Decision,” Korea Watch, March 10, 2016.

110. “Inflation Surprises to the Upside,” Korea Watch, March 6, 2016.

111. “Export Blues Continue, Mixed with Improvement in Export Volume,” Korea Watch, March 1, 2016.

112. “(Why) Is There a Disconnect Between the Leading Indicator and Reality?” Korea Watch, February 26, 2016.*

113. “Korea: Great Divergence Between Leading Indicator & Reality, GEMs Daily - Asia Edition, February 24, 2016.*

114. “BoK Walks a Fine Line,” Korea Watch, February 16, 2016.

115. “Five Questions about Korean Households,” Asia Economic Weekly, February 4, 2016.*

116. “MoSF Unveils Additional Fiscal Policy Measures,” Korea Watch, February 3, 2016.

117. “Inflation Falls Below 1% on Base Effect,” Korea Watch, February 2, 2016.

118. “Export Gloom Deepens,” Korea Watch, January 31, 2016.

119. “What Does the Latest Labor Market Development Indicate?” GEMs Daily - Asia Edition, January 27, 2016.*

120. “What Does the Latest Labor Market Development Indicate?” Korea in Focus, January 27, 2016.*

121. “4Q GDP Growth Softens Despite Strong Consumption,” Korea Watch, January 26, 2016.

122. “Is the Recent Large Current Account Surplus Sustainable?” Korea Watch, January 24, 2016.*

123. “What Is Driving Korea’s Big Current Account Surplus?” Asia Economic Weekly, January 21, 2016.*

124. “Phillips Curve Is Alive and Well,” Korea Watch, January 17, 2016.*

125. “BoK on Watchful Hold amid Skittish Start to the Year,” Korea Watch, January 14, 2016.

126. “Assessing the Recent Inflation Trend,” Korea in Focus, January 6, 2016.*

127. “N. Korea Tests H-bomb,” Korea Watch, January 6, 2016.

128. “Understanding the Recent Consumption Pattern,” Korea Watch, January 3, 2016.*

129. “Export Gloom Persists amid Feeble Inflation,” Korea Watch, January 3, 2016.

130. “BoK’s New Inflation Target of 2%,” Korea Watch, December 16, 2015.

131. “12 Trillion Dollar Free Trade Area,” Korea in Focus, December 14, 2015.

132. “BoK Continues with Rate on Hold,” Korea Watch, December 10, 2015.

133. “Consumption Redux: Is It Real?” Korea in Focus, December 8, 2015.*

134. “Korea: Consumption Redux: Is It Real?” GEMs Daily - Asia Edition, December 7, 2015.*

135. “Preliminary 3Q GDP Estimates Turned Out Better,” Korea Watch, December 3, 2015.

136. “Weak Exports, Large Trade Surplus, and Emerging Inflation,” Korea Watch, December 1,2015.

137. “Will corporate debt be a new stumbling block to Korea?, Korea Watch, 25-Nov-2015.*

138. “Growth Recovery with a Solo Engine,” Korea in Focus, November 24, 2015.

139. “Korea: Does Corporate Debt Pose a Systemic Risk?,” GEMs Daily - Asia Edition, November 23, 2015.*

140. “Federfly Effects on Korea,” Asia Economic Weekly, November 12, 2015.*

141. “What Do Data Say about Korean Economy during Fed’s Tightening Cycles?” Korea Watch, November 12, 2015.*

142. “BoK on Hold, with Eyes on Fed,” Korea Watch, November 12, 2015.

143. “Inflation on Course for a Gradual Rise,” Korea Watch, November 3, 2015.

144. “Downswing in Exports Continues,” Korea Watch, November 1, 2015.

145. “Economic Forecast for 2015-16: Revision,” Korea Watch, October 25, 2015.**

146. “3Q Growth Comeback amid Gloomy Export Outlook,” Korea Watch, October 23, 2015.

147. “Korea: (Why) Is the Current Recovery Different?” GEMs Daily - Asia Edition, October 20, 2015.*

148. “(Why) Is the Current Recovery Different?” Korea in Focus, October 20, 2015.*

149. “Three Tales of A Recovery,” Korea Watch, October 19, 2015.*

150. “BoK Decision to Hold Dovetails with Our View,” Korea Watch, October 15, 2015.